Betting History Plot
Using Predict
The memory controls how far back the confidence factor of the point spread remembers games. Sometimes smaller values like 150 provide better results, and sometimes large falues like 500 work best. The time you will wait for the program to run is directly proportional to the memory value.
The money line is affected by the k_factor, mentioned previously, and the parlay threshold only. You set the parlay threshold at some small amount over 1.00, such as 1.05 or 1.25, and the program will compare the money line odds converted into fixed decimal odds, multiplied by the success percentage, to that value.
Speaking of algorithm effectiveness, for the point spread wager I would recommend using the older program, Predict Games. It has a lot more fancy stuff in it that I created, and I'm happy to say it works quite well for most sports except NBA and NCAABK. I had planned to code that algorithm into the Predict program, but I ended up creating something similar but unique for Predict. The over/under algorithm is identical in both programs and is very effective for WNBA but so far is a losing proposition usually for the other sports. We are waiting for data to evaluate others. The money line and parlay recommendations can be good or bad depending on the sport and your selection of control variables.
Well, that's all I have to say for now, so feel free to have at the programs and optimize your control variables for your favorite wager of your favorites sport.