Freedom Odds

Predict Sagarin radio show forum blog store

Jacqueline is Born

While studying prediction systems and remembering my old programs, I thought of something interesting. What if I took an existing prediction system that was pretty good and added my code on top of it? Well, I tried it and Jacqueline was born. The program had such a grand entry in initial picks that I immediately started running it for all my contest picks, and it has done well to date.

Jacqueline's Picks

I post Jacqueline's picks on the front page and keep a historical record here on this page. These are all the picks that the program has made since its creation, so it's a fairly complete data set. You can look over the past record and get a feel for her prediction strength.

PaperTest

I also wrote a companion program to Jacqueline called PaperTest, which evaluates her results statistically. With a history of results, I can know what confidence factor ranges are how strong and use this information to perform bet selection. So far PaperTest has shown that Jacqueline is better at NFL than NBA, but is pretty good at both.

Here is an audio show that describes Jacqueline. It is 7 minutes long.

Jacqueline Stumbles

Last week Jacqueline made some poor predictions, mostly because she was starting to predict basketball. For this reason I have taken Jacqueline off of basketball duty until further notice. I know that I was accidentally using a 6-week old rankings input file and there may be other problems. So for now let's just finish out the NFL season and give me a little time to figure this out. If anyone wants, I can run Predict_Games predictions on NBA which have been 55% successful in the past. If you would like that, let me know by email in the lower right corner of the page.

Jacqueline's Prediction Record

NFL Preseason Week 1
NYG +3.0 push
CLE -3.5 lose
NWE -5.5 lose
CHI -3.5 lose
NOR +3.0 win
PHI +3.0 lose
MIN -3.0 lose
OAK -3.0 win
JAC -6.0 lose
TAM +2.0 win
TEN -3.0 win
HOU -3.0 push
SDG -3.0 win
GNB -3.0 lose
Result:  6-7-2

NFL Preseason Week 2
PHI -3.5 win
TEN -4.5 lose
MIN +2.5 win
JAC -4.0 lose
IND +3.0 win
SDG +3.0 win
ARI +3.0 win
GNB +3.0 lose
DAL +3.0 lose
DET +3.5 win
NWE +2.0 lose
NYG -3.0 push
Result:  12-12-3

NCAABK 2/20/08
W GEOGST   10.0
W FLRINT    4.0
W RICHMD    1.0
L  DREXL    5.0
W    DEL   15.5
L TOWSON    5.5
W  YOUNG    2.0
W   BALL    6.0
W DETMER    9.5
W MARQET   -8.5
L PENNST   15.5
L   NCST    8.0
W  OLDOM   -2.5
L  MARSH   -4.0
L   RICE   18.0
L MISSST    1.5
W   SCAR    8.5
L    WVA   -1.5
L    LSU   12.0
L TULANE   13.5
W   SWLA    4.0
W LOYCHI    0.0
W   EVAN    8.5
L  STLOU   -5.5
L    ILL    2.0
L  KANST   -3.5
W  MIAMI    7.0
L    AIR    3.0
W  TXTEC    0.0
W  WMICH  -11.5
W VATECH    8.0
W HAWAII    6.0
W   UCSB    2.0
P    BYU   -8.0
W    UCR    8.0
W CHARSC    1.5
W MOREST    6.0
L CITADL   18.0
NCAABK 26-20-3, 57%
not bad eh?

NCAABK 2/18/08
L  LOUIS  -10.0
L  STJOS  -13.5
L   PORT    4.5
L LOYMRY   11.5
W    USD    7.5
W FURMAN    3.5
L  SIENA   -4.0
W STPETE   14.0
P   FAIR   -2.0
P    CAN    5.0
W  TENST   -1.0
NCAABK 4-5-2, 44%
off to a slow start

NCAABK 2/19/08
no predictions,
overslept.

NCAABK 2/2/08
W_RICE +8.5
W_LOUIS -18.0
L_WASHST -5.0
L_CHARLO -10.0
W_OHIO -9.0
L_TROY +7.5
P_DUKE -15.0
L_ILL -4.5
L_OKLA +7.0
L_BG +11.5
W_OLDOM -12.0
W_STJOS -11.5
W_BYU -7.0
L_VAN -11.0
W_UCR +3.5
L_ECAR +11.5
L_MISS -10.5
L_OHIOST -4.5
L_ND -11.0
L_OREG -17.0
L_TCU -4.5
L_WRIGST -7.0
L_XAVIER -19.5
L_BROWN -7.5
L_YALE -1.0
W_DRAKE -3.0
W_WM -2.5
L_GONZAG -7.5
W_WVA -1.5
L_SFLA -5.0
L_EMICH +14.0
W_VACOMM -15.5
W_ILLCHI -9.5
W_DENVER +18.5
W_CLEM -10.5
W_WICH +12.5
W_NTEX -10.0
L_TULSA -14.0
L_COLST +8.0
L_ARIZ +8.5
L_NMEX +6.0
W_SJSU +5.5
W_LATECH +14.5
L_FURMAN +11.0
W_GRENSB -12.0
L_APPAL -6.0
L_EILL +6.5
L_MURRAY -16.5
L_WEBER -1.0
L_NOCO -4.5
L_MONTST +5.0
today 19-31
NCAABK 83-87-1, 49%

NCAABK 2/1/2008
L_BROWN -3.0
L_HARV +2.0
L_YALE -7.5
L_PRINCE -5.0
W_CAN +7.0
NCAABK 64-56-1, 53%

NCAABK 1/31/2008
W_NCAR -18.5
L_ND -8.5
W_MINN -2.5
W_WKTY -13.0
W_YOUNG +6.0
W_TEMP +0.0
W_DUKE -18.0
L_WASHST -9.5
L_FRESNO +9.0
L_ASU +13.5
W_AUSPY -3.0
L_TENST -8.5
L_TENMAR -1.5
L_WEBER -8.5
W_MONTST +0.0
today 8-7-0
NCAABK 63-52-1, 55%

NFL 1/7/08
NWE -13   lose
NFL:  29-11-0, 73%


NFL 1/14/2008
SDG +14   win
GNB  -7   lose
NFL: 30-12-0, 71%

NBA 1/11/08
TOR -5    win
ORL +4.5  lose
LAL -12.5 lose

1-2-0, 33%
NBA:  2-5-0, 29%

1/9/08
NBA:
PHI +8.5  lose
MIA +4.5  lose
LAL +2.5  win
DET +2.5  lose

1-3-0, 25%
NBA:  1-3-0, 25%

1/1/08
Jacqueline

NYG +2.5
SDG -9

2-0-0, 100%
NFL:  29-10-0, 74%

12/26/07
Jacqueline

PHI  -7.5 win
GNB  -3.5 win
CLE -10   win
PIT  -3.5 lose
SDG  -7.5 win
ARI  -6   win
KAN  +6   win

6-1-0, 86%
NFL:  27-10-0, 73%

12/18/07
Jacqueline

PIT  -8   win
DAL -10.5 lose
CIN  +3   win
CHI  +9   win
IND  -7   win
DET  -4.5 win
BUF  +3   lose
JAC -13   win
TAM  -7   lose
SEA -10   win
WAS  +6.5 win
SDG  -9   win

9-3-0, 75%
NFL:  21-9-0, 70%

12/11/07
Jacqueline

HOU  -1   win
SFO  +8.5 win
MIA  +3.5 win
GNB  -9.5 win
JAC  +3.5 win
NWE -24   lose
SEA  -7   lose
KAN  +4   lose
IND -10.5 lose
DET +10.5 lose
CHI +10   win

6-5-0, 55%
NFL:  12-6-0, 67%

12/08/07
Jacqueline

JAC -11   win
DET +11   win
SDG  PK   win
TAM  -3   lose
MIN  -8.5 win
CLE  -3.5 win
IND  -9   win

6-1-0, 86%
NFL:  6-1-0, 86%

Hit Counters

Contact me inventor-66@comcast.net